Listen to the AI Narrated commentary overview of the post:
If you’ve ever attended a climate change keynote or heard a tech startup pitch, you’ve likely encountered one of three things:
A doomscroll-worthy op-ed about how “we’re all screwed,” except it’s in 3,000 words and has an accompanying graph that looks like the stock market during a crash.
A tech-bro utopia spiel, promising carbon-capturing hoverboards by next quarter, pending funding (aka it’s vaporware or more accurately a solution that doesn’t fit into existing socio-economic systems).
A long-winded philosophical ramble that name-drops “Gaia theory” and “tipping points” without ever telling you what to do about it.
This blog is none of those.
Instead, it’s for people like you—whether you’re a climate curious operator, tech founder, investor, or someone who can’t stop overthinking how shade trees could lower insurance costs (yes, that’s a thing) — and are itching to grasp systems thinking in a way that’s as practical as it is elegant.
Let’s break it down into a narrative you’ll not only understand but can explain at a party without sounding like a dystopian oracle.
First, What’s Systems Thinking?
Systems thinking is like zooming out in Google Earth. While everyone else is squinting at one neighborhood’s recycling bins, you’re looking at the entire city’s waste management infrastructure. And then you zoom further out and realize the city is part of a bigger ecosystem—supply chains, economic incentives, consumer behaviors, and maybe even the jet streams.
It’s the art of seeing the interconnectedness of it all, like noticing how fixing one part of a system (e.g., switching to EVs) could strain another (e.g., the demand for rare-earth metals and child labor).
If that sounds complicated, it is—but that’s why we’re here to uncomplicate it.
The “Transformer Moment” of Climate Thinking
Just like transformers revolutionized NLP by making everything suddenly seem obvious in hindsight (“Of course! Let’s use attention!”), systems thinking feels like that lightbulb moment for climate action.
Systems thinking is about answering the right questions:
Not just “How do we plant a billion trees?” but “How do we ensure those trees stay alive in 40°C heat?”
Not just “What’s the ROI on this solar farm?” but “How does decentralized energy production shift societal power dynamics?”
Not just “How do we fund this startup?” but “What structural incentives make this solution stick long-term?”
Anatomy of Systems Thinking: The Key Layers
Let’s break it down with the same kind of faux-technical rigor we pretend to understand in transformer blogs:
1. Inputs: The “Stuff That Goes In”
Every climate system starts with inputs. Think energy, water, materials, labor—anything that feeds into the system. For instance:
Inputs for a solar panel farm include: silicon, land, and government subsidies.
Inputs for a carbon removal startup might include: captured CO₂, water, and, most importantly, attention from VCs who have FOMO about the IRA.
2. Attention: The Hidden Energy Source
Just like transformers re-weight “attention” to find the most important words in a sentence, systems thinkers redistribute “attention” to find the hidden leverage points in a system.
Take urban heat islands, for example. Everyone focuses on AC units (outputs), but systems thinking redirects attention to upstream causes: lack of tree cover, heat-absorbing materials, and zoning laws. Solve those, and AC demand plummets.
3. Feedback Loops: The “What Could Go Horribly Wrong” Layer
Feedback loops are like the climate equivalent of your toddler yelling back every time you tell them “no.”
Positive feedback loops = bad news. More heat melts ice, which reveals dark ocean, which absorbs more heat.
Negative feedback loops = good news. More renewables on the grid reduce emissions, lowering temperature increases, which helps renewable adoption.
Smart systems thinkers aim to dampen the bad loops while amplifying the good ones.
4. Emergent Behavior: The “Whoa, I Didn’t See That Coming” Factor
This is where systems thinking shines. Emergent behavior is what happens when individual actions combine to produce something bigger—and often surprising.
Example: Subsidizing rooftop solar isn’t just about energy; it creates new dynamics:
People start comparing electricity bills like high school GPAs.
Local electricians get busy, boosting the economy.
Suddenly, HOAs care more about solar panel aesthetics than lawn lengths.
A Practical Example: Electrifying Lawn Care
Let’s say you’re building a business to electrify lawn care equipment (mowers, blowers, and trimmers). Traditional thinking says:
“Find a cheaper, quieter battery tech.”
“Create a sexy marketing campaign about local air quality / pollution.”
Systems thinking, on the other hand, zooms out to ask:
1. How do regulations drive demand? Could banning gas-powered blowers (as some Californian cities have done) create market pull?
2. How can we align incentives? Developing financing vehicles for landscapers to offset upfront costs could accelerate adoption. (Hint: The economics on the operational costs already makes sense to improve ROI)
3. What cascading effects might this trigger? Cleaner air = fewer asthma cases = lower healthcare costs = stronger policy momentum.
Common Pitfalls: Avoid These Classic Traps
1. “The Silver Bullet Syndrome”
Believing there’s one solution to solve it all is like thinking GPT-3 would answer every AI question ever (spoiler: it didn’t). Systems thinking is about combinations.
2. “Optimizing in Isolation”
Improving one system at the expense of another is like boosting transformer accuracy while blowing up your GPU costs. Climate systems, too, require balance.
3. “Forgetting the Human Factor”
You can design the perfect system, but if people don’t adopt it (see: most government apps), it’s a failure. Systems thinking must account for psychology, community, and trust.
Transformers Gave NLP Wings; Systems Thinking Gives Climate Tech Roots
If transformers taught us how to pay attention to words, systems thinking teaches us how to pay attention to the world.
And just like transformers didn’t invent language but revolutionized how we process it, systems thinking doesn’t invent climate solutions—it revolutionizes how we scale, combine, and sustain them.
The key to transforming climate systems lies in identifying the high-leverage points—those pivotal actions and connections that ripple across entire systems. Systems thinking, paired with advanced tools like AI and quantum computing, enables us to find and act on these points collectively.
If you’re a capital allocator, operator, or founder inspired by this approach, we’d love to connect. Join our ICE Investment Committee, submit ideas/solutions to our RFX (Request for X), or fill out our Fund Interest Form. Let’s work together to build scalable systems that matter.
If any of this resonated with you, please share this blog and our fund interest form with capital allocators in your network who might be moved to align more of their capital with this ‘climate systems thinking’ lens.